KICCE Policy Brief

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Exploring Predictors of Fertility Intention Among Dual-Earner Married Women: Using the Random Forest Method

Lira Ahn

This study applied the random forest method to explore the factors influencing the fertility intentions of married, dual-income women and to determine how each factor impacts their decision-making. The analysis utilized data from the 4th(2012) to the 9th(2022) waves of the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women and Families(KLoWF), and included 3,314 cases of married, dual-earner women under the age of 49. The main findings are as follows. First, the variable importance rankings in the predictive model revealed that gender equality factors were the most influential, followed by economic and cultural-attitudinal factors. Second, fertility intention was highest when both the husband’s housework contribution and the wife’s economic bargaining power were at equal levels between spouses. Third, household income exhibited a non-linear relationship with fertility intention: intention increased with income up to a perceived adequate level for childbearing, but decreased beyond that threshold. This indicates that promoting gender equality in the household and society is crucial for addressing Korea’s low-birthrate crisis. Additionally, enhancing policy effectiveness will require the design of tailored policies that take into account the nonlinear relationships between economic factors and fertility intentions.

Keywords: fertility intention, dual-earner married women, gender equality, random forest

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